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Market Plus: Jun 14, 2002

posted on June 14, 2002

Market Plus: Jun 14, 2002 Pearson: Welcome to Market Plus on the Market to Market Web site, I'm Mark Pearson and our analyst this week is Tomm Pfitzenmaier, Summit Brokerage in Des Moines. Tomm, we had a chance to talk about what's ahead. The way you talked there are some reasons to be bullish out there.

Pfitzenmaier: Yeah, we're in a very interesting situation here because you do have declining carry outs in corn and if anything goes wrong, I mean, the USDa projected this week 1.3 billion bushel carry out. If anything goes wrong and that gets a whack back, we don't know that they're right on the acreage numbers, it could even be lower than they thought, there is the potential here for corn to have some nice up, I think that's why it's very difficult to pull the trigger on selling corn here because obviously that July/August period is so critical and so important when you have a reduced acreage that people are just a little uneasy on how to, they kind of sense that there's an opportunity here but they don't want to get themselves in a jam by selling too early. So, it's a difficult situation right now.

Well, I think that's the only answer is to go out and by that December $2.30 put if you can pick that up for fifteen, sixteen cents, maybe at some point later when you're a little confident that the crops is made or that the top is in, maybe later go sell a call to help pay for it. But I think just to get yourself covered do a scale up selling program with buy and puts and if it keeps going buy yourself a couple 240's and just kind of scale up that way. That way if the market does keep moving higher you're going to participate in that too.

Pearson: What about participating on the livestock front? We've been talking about cattle and hogs and the pressure we've had on red meat and you touched on it in the show, there are just a lot of factors out there on the down side. What about going for it? I mean, these guys are buying these peter cattle, how do you make them work?

Pfitzenmaier: Well, again the calculations that we've done over the last week or two shows that you can go out and do some kind of a put strategy or a put call strategy to lock yourself a four in it, break even or the other alternative is to sell the futures and buy yourself a call on a defensive basis if you think that's appropriate. One of the things we eluded to right at the end of the show, we talked about December hogs and what the potential there is and I guess that's one place I would absolutely say do not edge December hogs. There's no reason to go out and lock in $35 hogs.

Now, maybe you want to buy a $32 put, we did some of that this week, we bought a $32 put, sold a $42 call to pay for it and it gives you at least security to sleep at night but I wouldn't hedge those in because it's just a cheap...if you go back and look at '98 which is a benchmark, everybody looks at, you were only under $35 hogs for two weeks. In the long run that's not that long a period of time and it's not worth locking in your whole production for that quarter based on that low a level and just giving up basically.

So, if you're worried, buy a put, otherwise I'd just stay open on that.

Pearson: Alright, some good points Tomm. Market Plus of course, a weekly part of our Market to Market Web Site. Thanks for joining us. I'm Mark Pearson for Tomm Pfitzenmaier.

Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news