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Market Plus: Jun 07, 2002

posted on June 7, 2002


Market Plus: Jun 07, 2002

Pearson: Hey thanks for joining us on the Market to Market Web page for Market Plus. I'm Mark Pearson, host of Market to Market and our guest this week is Virgil Robinson. Virgil, always good to have you with us and appreciate your comments during the program. We did not get the chance to talk as much about two areas that I know you wanted to touch on. One of those was the wheat market which we really didn't talk that much about in the show and again, not a whole lot to say but again, producers need to be alert out there don't they?

Robinson: Yeah, there'll be some adjustments I think, Mark, in wheat production next Wednesday and I'm anticipating there'll be decreases in crop size, Mark. So again the theme here is US stocks keep tightening but world supplies remain fairly ample. Given that scenario I'm of the opinion wheat futures on recovery, July near 2.80, September near 2.88 represent pretty good opportunities to makes sales.

Pearson: Okay, let's talk a little bit about this hog market as well. There has been a lot of concern off and on, intermittent regarding what's ahead for the fourth quarter for hogs. '98 is still somewhat fresh in our minds and the nightmare we had in there due to a lot of circumstances, slaughter capacity, some things kind of came together to really force the hog market into the basement and we don't want to see that happen again. It's almost like if we've been talking about this enough maybe we're starting to cure the problem. Certainly it's been heartening the last two weeks we've talked on the show of this hog market this last five trading sessions has really come back.

Robinson: Recovered nicely, drive by, I think, demand Mark, pretty solid demand. The good news here regarding the fourth quarter is that in May, pig and hog crop report, that monthly report, USDA indicated the pig crop was only one percent larger than it was a year ago which would suggest then that the numbers that we have been terribly fearful of for the last several months may not be as burdensome in that fourth quarter as we had earlier thought.

Now, again we also alluded to the fact that we continue to import an awful lot of hogs, a lot of feeder pigs out of Canada. So, there's good news, there's bad news but I'd like to stay in the camp, at least tonight, of one, not quite a large supply on schedule for the fourth quarter as we feared earlier in the year and then number two, I think demand is improving, Mark.

The trend here early on, weaker dollars, stronger yen bodes well for an increase in business, export business with the Japanese. I think that will, in fact, take shape and develop the balance of this year into 2003. We need to see that happen as far as domestic pork production is concerned. That'd be very good news.

Pearson: Virgil Robinson, as usual, great to have you with us. Virgil Robinson, our guest on Market Plus this week. For Market to Market, I'm Mark Pearson.


Tags: agriculture commodity prices markets news wheat