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Market Plus: Mar 15, 2002

posted on March 15, 2002


Market Plus: Mar 15, 2002

PEARSON: Welcome to the Market Plus portion of our Market to Market Web site. I'm the host of Market to Market, Mark Pearson and our analyst is Sue Martin who joins us here. Sue, lots of things to talk about, not all that positive. I want to talk about the livestock, what you said on the show about livestock and follow up a little bit with you on that.

Also, as far as this grain market is concerned, you were looking for kind of a move through the first part of March and we've kind of seen that. Now do you think we'll probably back off?

MARTIN: Well, I think that in the grains, when I look at the soybeans, that's the one good market that we have, looking at less acres, that type of thing. Although I believe we're oging to see more bean acres this yera and more corn acres both and then lose some wheat acres. But sparks are coming out and it carries a lot of weight and is well respected that we're going to see less bean acres and so that certanily helped us push today.

But we've had eight weeks up in beans. Next week we could very easily take these highs out because we closed right under our highs here today. So it wouldn't take anything at all to have nine weeks up. We're pushing the limit here, nothing goes straight up forever and so we're due for a correction in the bean market.

But our first target basis May is four eighty-nine and a quarter. So, maybe we're heading straight for that and then we give up from there. If we do go straight to that number I would definitely be getting some of your beans that you've LDPs moved.

PEARSON: Absolutely. Those uncovered cash beans, kiss them goodbye, a good chunk of them. You also talked about this livestock market and we have headed south. This market, it looks so good. Really people didn't think that beef prices could hold on and now people have kind of got comfortable that maybe this beef and pork industry would kind of carry us through. We're seeing a softer side here.

MARTIN: Well, I certainly think so. When I look at June cattle the fact that, one, we've had a basis change with the leave month. Two, we've got a lot of tonnage that these cattle are carrying, maybe up to 35 pounds over a year ago. That's compensating for the less numbers that we've got. Then in the meantime exports to Japan, yeah they've come back some, but not as good as they need to and you have to consider the fact that that's your better cuts or expensive cuts. Exports to Mexico are very good on beef but that's the cheap cuts. So, we've got a problem with cattle and I think now when we're looking at the potential that we may not succeed in getting anything solved with Russia over the ban on poultry out of the US and they're our largest importer of poultry. We're looking at a little bit more competition of meat that's going to be staying at home here until we get our numbers worked back down. That's going to compete with the cattle also. So, when I look at the June cattle I think they've got to move down to sixty-five cents. The problem is this move is coming faster than I ever expected. I mean, I always thought we could see sixty-five cent June cattle but sure never dreamed it would be like within a week or a week and a half and we're not only but two dollars away.

PEARSON: As you said in the show, if you have cattle to market get them moved.

MARTIN: Absolutely, any cattle that's ready to go. Don't feed them so heavy, just get them gone. I think you'll be better off.

PEARSON: Good point as usual. Sue Martin, thank you so much. Sue Martin of Bank and Investment Services joining us here on Market Plus. I'm Mark Pearson.


Tags: agriculture commodity prices livestock markets news